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In the context of the continuing decline in demand for new cars, Russian car factories began to reduce production. Over time, this can lead to a shortage of running models from dealers.

Russian car factories for the first eight months of 2019 increased production by 1.3%, producing more than 1 million cars, according to Rosstat. The active work of the government on import substitution in the Russian car market in recent years, as well as the current targeted state program of preferential car loans, which apply only to cars of domestic Assembly, allowed them not to slow down against the background of the General fall in demand for new cars. Nevertheless, the margin of safety, apparently, is coming to an end and Russian car factories, and they are forced to resort to such traditional anti-crisis measures as downtime of the conveyor and reduction of the working week.

So, GM-AVTOVAZ in early September for a week stopped the production of Chevrolet Niva due to overstocking of warehouses, and the company does not exclude downtime of the conveyor in the future. As stated by " RG " in the press service of GM-AVTOVAZ, depending on the market situation, the company has the ability to quickly adjust production volumes to maintain an optimal balance of supply and demand for Chevrolet Niva and avoid overstocking or, conversely, the deficit demanded by customers kits or colors.

AvtoVAZ, despite its sales growth this year, has reduced the speed of some conveyor lines since September. According to industry sources, the reduction in production will affect, first of all, models on the common platform of the Alliance Renault-Nissan-B0 (Lada Xray and Largus, Renault Logan and Sandero), as well as SUVs Lada 4x4. At the same time, the production line, where Lada Granta and Datsun models are produced, introduced additional shifts on Saturdays in September.

But the Gorky automobile plant in the deteriorating situation in the market of commercial vehicles and restrictions on production activities of the company due to US sanctions can move to a reduced, four-day working week from October 2019 to April next year. The press service of the Gas noted that this is a preventive measure, and if the situation on the market stabilizes, it will not be introduced, the company will continue to operate as usual.

"In a non-growing market, the approach to production and supply planning should be much more cautious and conservative. Better a light deficit than an overabundance, which causes a double blow to the economy of the enterprise: the content of excess warehouses and additional discounts on the sale of these cars", - says Timur Valiullin.

Meanwhile, representatives of the Ulyanovsk automobile plant, "Avtotor", "Mazda Sollers", Russian plants Hyundai and Nissan assured that the production of cars is carried out as usual, and no changes in the schedule in the near future is not planned.

"UAZ works in the concept of Just-in-time. The company produces cars already secured by the order and prepayment. This avoids the freezing of funds, and dealers - to plan their own stocks,"- said, in particular, the press service of the Ulyanovsk automobile plant.

According to market participants, in the current market conditions, the optimal stock of cars at the dealer should be equal to or slightly higher than its monthly sales volume. In this case, the risk of overstocking is significantly reduced, as well as the load on the financing of the warehouse is reduced, explains Konstantin Avakyan, project Manager for business processes at Avtospeccenter. According to him, overstocking dealer warehouses can now be observed on models produced for a long time without any significant changes. In particular, this applies to models such as Kia Rio or Hyundai Solaris, which are volume-forming for the sales of the brand.

At the same time, demand may exceed supply for new or updated models, as well as for models that are "pioneers" of any niches and segments. As an example, Renault Arkana: compact coupe crossover from the budget segment at the time of entry into the market was in high demand, and some of its modifications are still in deficit, " says Konstantin Avakyan.

Continues to increase production and suburban plant Mercedes-Benz, which today descend from the conveyor sedans E-Class. In September, the company launched the second shift, which will expand the range: gradually there will be established production of SUVs GLE, GLC and GLS.

Despite the fact that the market share of locally produced cars has reached a record 85%, the capacities of car factories in our country are currently loaded only by about 40%. As a result, some companies in recent years are operating on the verge of profitability or even at a loss. An eloquent example of this is Ford, which recently completely curtailed the production of passenger cars in Russia and closed two of its plants.

"The fact is that during the construction of automobile plants in their design peak capacity investors laid long-term expectations for economic growth and the associated growth of the domestic market, as well as prospects for establishing sales to the markets of other countries, an increase in exports. At the moment, the domestic market is falling, and the forecast until the end of this year is disappointing: most likely, the result of 2019 will be a fall relative to last year," says Konstantin Avakyan.

According to Vladimir Miroshnikov, development Director of Rolf, the government is currently trying to develop the export of cars from Russia, but it is obvious that the main market for the products of the Russian automotive industry will remain the domestic market. Thus, the further dynamics of sales in the Russian car market will set the production pace for the car Assembly enterprises of the country. If stagnation continues, leading automakers will be forced to limit production, including through temporary stops of the conveyor.

 

Source: https://rg.ru/2019/09/21/rossijskij-avtoprom-gotovitsia-k-novomu-krizisu.html