The volume of international trade of Russia with unfriendly countries will be reduced by five times by 2030
Source：tks.ru
From：Taiwan Trade Center, Moscow
Update Time：2024/02/19
The volume of international trade of Russia with unfriendly countries will be reduced by five times by 2030, according to the forecast of the Center for Strategic Research, which is available to RIA Novosti.
The CSR has analysed the evolution of international trade over several years and has projected international freight flows to 2030 by destination, country and cargo nomenclature.
It is noted that the period 2021-2023, during which the Russian economy is under sanctions pressure, can be described as turbulent. There has been a significant change in the direction of international trade, which is due to a sharp decline in the share of flows of "sanctions countries". However, according to First Deputy General Director Tatiana Gorova, "the sanctions pressure has led to a qualitative and complex re-evaluation of the country’s foreign economic priorities".
“If at the end of 2021, exports to unfriendly countries amounted to 55% of the total volume, and imports – 26%, then by the end of this year, 16% and 7% are predicted, respectively. It is expected that in the future until 2030, the volume of international trade with these countries will decrease fivefold,” the forecast says.
East turn
At the same time, there is an increase in exports in the eastern direction with China and to other Asian countries, as well as along the routes of the international transport corridor “North-South” and the Azov-Black Sea basin due to more intensive trade with Turkey and the countries of the Middle East, the Center for Social Development notes. Thus, according to experts, since 2022, the volume of exports to India has increased almost 3.5 times, to Azerbaijan - by 27%, to China - by 15%, and the same to Turkey, as well as to Iran - by 7%. The situation is similar in imports: from China it increased by 35%, from Southeast Asia - by 26%, from Turkey - by 17%.
It is noted that the active use of the routes of the international transport corridor "North - South" will be due to the infrastructural restrictions of the Eastern Railway Range and the seaports of the North-West and Azov-Black Sea basins.
Commodity structure
In the structure of imports in this period, the largest share will be mineral products and coal (21%), while there will be an increase in coal imports and an increase in its share in the total volume of transportation by 4% compared to 2021. At the same time, imports of food products and agricultural raw materials will decrease (by 3% compared to 2021), which can be characterized as an increase in Russia’s food security, the forecast also notes.
The eastward reorientation will stimulate an increase in the average distance of transport and freight turnover on the railway, the CSR predicts.
With regard to maritime transport, it is expected that by 2030 the total and container cargo traffic will decrease, with a gradual recovery in the North-West direction by 2035, and that export-import traffic, including multimodal container traffic, will increase in the Far East basin. Experts also expect an increase in export traffic in the Azov-Black Sea basin.
Source: https://www.tks.ru/reviews/2023/12/11/02/